NB: all readings are to be completed before class on the week indicated.

**August 27, 2019
**understanding ourselves when n = 330,000,000

quick review of some basic concepts:

– variables

– levels of measurement

– samples vs. populations

– descriptive vs. inferential statistics

– central tendency

– dispersal

**September 3, 2019
**

*reading:*

*Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 5, and*

*(skim) O’Boyle Jr., Ernest and Herman Aguinis. 2012. “The Best & the Rest: Revisiting the Norm of Normality of Individual Performance.” Personnel Psychology (65)79-119.*

probability and the normal distribution

– freaky pervasiveness and relevance

– areas under the curve

– z scores

**September 10, 2019**

reading:

*Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 6, and*

*Rothschild, David and Sharad Goel. 2016. “When You Hear the Margin of Error is Plus or Minus 3 Percent, Think 7 Instead.” **New York Times** October 5.*

the Central Limit Theorem

– why the universe looks like it does

– why inferential statistics work

confidence intervals

– for means

– for proportions

**September 17, 2019**

*reading:*

*Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 7, and
Nuzzo, Regina. 2014. “Statistical Errors: P Values, the ‘Gold Standard’ of Statistical Validity, Are Not as Reliable as Many Scientists Assume.” Nature 506(February 13):150-2.
*

the logic of hypothesis testing

– the provisional nature of all scientific knowledge

– null vs. alternative hypotheses

– one vs. two tailed tests

– type I vs. type II error

– statistical power

**September 24, 2019
**

*reading:*

*Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 7, and*

Amrhein, Valentin, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane. 2019. “Scientists Rise Up Against Statistical Significance.” Nature 567:305-307.

Amrhein, Valentin, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane. 2019. “

t tests

– single sample test of proportions

– two samples, independent

– two samples, matched or pretest/posttest

– test for difference of proportions

**October 1, 2019**

**class meets in UAC 424 for graded assignment **

reading:

Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 8, and

Wasserstein, Ronald L., Allen L. Schirm, and Nicole A. Lazar. 2019. “Moving to a World Beyond ‘p < 0.05.'” The American Statistician 73:sup1:1-19.

ANOVA

**October 8, 2019**

*reading:
Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 9
*

chi-square

– crosstabs

– adjusted residuals

Mann-Whitney’s U

**October 15, 2019
**

**midterm exam**

**October 22, 2019
**

*reading:*

(skim) Schoenfeld, Jonathan D. and John P.A. Ionnidis. 2013. “Is Everything We Eat Associated with Cancer? A Systematic Cookbook Review.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 97(127-34).

(skim) Schoenfeld, Jonathan D. and John P.A. Ionnidis. 2013. “Is Everything We Eat Associated with Cancer? A Systematic Cookbook Review.” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 97(127-34).

the logic of random sampling*
*– why the samples really truly need to be random

*– random error vs. systematic error*

*– selection biases*

*– non response biases*

*– response biases (social desirability, wording effects, order effects, testing effects, anchoring heuristics)*

**October 29, 2019
**

*reading:*

Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 10

Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 10

correlation

– direct, inverse, and curvilinear relationships

– scatterplots

– dependent and independent variables

– correlation vs. causation, extraneous variables redux

– partial correlation

– coefficient of determination

**November 5, 2019
class meets in UAC 424 for graded assignment**

*reading:*

Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 11

Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 11

linear regression

– the deep logic of the least squares line

– how to find the line of best fit and how to deal with the nearly limitless mojo it imparts to s/he who wields it

**November 12, 2019
**

*reading:*

*Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 11*

multiple regression

– regression to the mean

– multivariate relationships (spurious, multicausal, mediated, suppressed, interacting)

– the linear multivariate regression model

– interpreting regression coefficients, beta weights, R, and R square

**November 19, 2019**

*reading:*

* Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 11, and
Yong, Ed. 2019. “A Waste of 1,000 Research Papers. The Atlantic May 17.
*

multiple regression

– multicollinearity, scourge of the social sciences

– dummy variables

logistic regression

**November 26, 2019**

*reading:*

* Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 12*

Spearman’s Rho

Gamma

**December 3, 2019**

*reading:*

* Levin, Fox, and Forde chapter 12*

Phi and Cramer’s V

review for final exam

**December 10, 2019**

**8:00 p.m.**

**final exam**